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EU fears Russia will refuse to leave!
By Tony Barber in Avignon
September 5, 2008

There is growing concern among European Union governments that they will be unable to persuade Russia to withdraw its forces from a “buffer zone” in Georgia, which they occupied during their military victory last month.

The concern emerged on Friday at an informal two-day meeting of EU foreign ministers in the French city of Avignon. Leaders of the 27-nation EU last Monday urged Russia to withdraw its soldiers to positions held before August 7, when Georgia began a military operation to recapture the pro-Russian separatist enclave of South Ossetia.

The Russian forces crushed the Georgians and are at present stationed in what Moscow regards as a “security zone” outside South Ossetia, whose independence – along with that of Abkhazia, a similar enclave – Moscow recognised on August 26.

Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s president, and other EU leaders are due in Moscow on Monday for talks.

Although they stopped short of threatening economic or diplomatic sanctions against Moscow, they said they would postpone talks on a new partnership accord as long as the Kremlin failed to act

They also intend to seal a closer relationship with Ukraine at a summit next Tuesday, though without offering Kiev an explicit promise of eventual EU membership.

Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, told Karel de Gucht, his Belgian counterpart, in Moscow on Wednesday that Russia would keep its forces in the buffer zone as long as there were no “international mechanisms” to provide security.

Mr Lavrov also made clear the troops would not be removed as long as Georgia refused to sign an agreement on the non-use of military force in the future.

EU diplomats said Mr Lavrov’s stance, coupled with Russia’s recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, underlined how difficult it would be to resume normal relations with Moscow in the near future.

“Security and stability must be ensured with Russian co-operation. But for that to happen, Russia must show that it will honour its commitments,” said Luis Amado, Portugal’s foreign minister.

In a deliberate display of unity in the face of Russia’s actions, all EU foreign ministers except Franco Frattini of Italy travelled together to Avignon on Friday in a special high-speed train from Paris.

But the unity appeared to have its limits.

Mr Frattini was in Moscow communicating the views of Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s prime minister, who regards himself as having an especially close friendship with Vladimir Putin, the Russian prime minister.

Meanwhile, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany’s foreign minister, raised the idea of convening an international inquiry into the causes of the Georgian war, with a view to basing the EU’s future relations with both Russia and Georgia on the outcome of the probe.

EU diplomats said Mr Steinmeier was undoubtedly aware that investigators might well conclude that Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s president, bore some responsibility for the outbreak of hostilities on August 7. However, they noted that there appeared to be little enthusiasm for an inquiry in either Moscow or Tbilisi.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cea1058c-7b58-11dd-b839-000077b07658.html